The Nashville area saw a dramatic drop in home sales in October — a 30-percent decrease in closings from October 2021 to October 2022.

Here’s what analysts around the country are saying about Nashville’s housing market:


Rents for three-bedroom homes are increasing in Nashville, according to a Rentometer analysis of the third quarter. Nashville saw the second-highest increase among nearly 300 studied markets in both year-over-year rent increase (24 percent) and quarter-over-quarter increase (17 percent). Orlando and Atlanta, respectively, led those categories. According to Rentometer, three-bedroom single-family rental homes are one of the most active residential rental asset classes.

Apartments.com reported that multifamily rents declined in October for the third month in a row, with declines especially hitting markets like Nashville that previously saw the biggest gains. None of the top 40 markets saw year-over-year asking rents increase in October, according to the analysis. Particularly, Apartments.com reported, Sunbelt markets Orlando, Nashville and Austin saw weak rent growth.

“These rent conditions reflect a rough start to the already typically slow fourth quarter as new deliveries continue to drastically outpace demand,” said Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics for Apartments.com parent CoStar Group.

Home showings also saw a continued decline in September, according to ShowingTime. In Nashville, the ratio of showings to listings was 5.67, down 42 percent year-over-year and 12 percent month-over-month.

"In addition to the regular seasonal slowdown we would expect, buyers who can't overcome affordability challenges are opting out of the market and contributing to the fewer showings we saw in September," said Mike Lane, vice president of sales and industry for ShowingTime.

While most markets remained sellers’ markets in September, Nashville was among the cities where buyers had the advantage in the month, according to Knock. The analysis found that September home prices in 98 of 100 markets were below peak spring pricing. More and more markets are expected to become buyers’ markets in the coming months, Knock projected.

Realtor.com reported that active listings “soared” 33.5 percent nationally in October, reaching the highest level since 2020. Still, fewer home buyers could afford to take advantage of the increased inventory and longer time on market. Nashville saw the third-highest jump in inventory in October, at 145 percent, trailing just Phoenix and Raleigh among 42 analyzed markets.

"As the rapid runup in rates reshapes housing market dynamics this fall, both buyers and sellers are taking a step back to recalibrate their plans,” Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said. “Home shoppers are looking at a monthly mortgage payment that is roughly $1,000 higher than at this time last year, and incomes are rising but not by that much. Combined with asking prices that are still climbing at a double-digit yearly pace, the average American has taken a huge hit to their homebuying power. Still, our data indicates that some aspiring homeowners are finding ways to make the most of inventory conditions, such as by exploring relatively affordable metros. For buyers with the flexibility, relocating to a lower-priced market could help offset higher mortgage costs. There's also a takeaway for sellers in these areas — on a well-priced home, you could still see strong interest from these out-of-towners."

Moody’s is projecting U.S. home prices to fall 10 percent from peaks, due in part to higher mortgage rates. In Nashville, that drop could reach 20 percent, the firm reported.

"I raised my mortgage rate forecast and thus lowered my outlook for home sales, homebuilding and home prices,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told Fortune. “I was expecting mortgage rates to average 5.5 percent through next year's spring selling season. Now, I think it is much more likely to be closer to 6.5 percent. That hurts demand and homebuilding and home prices."